| Every Traditional Publisher should read the book | | | | qualities at work, which means B is better than A, |
| by Nicholas Taleb called 'The Black Swan'. Not | | | | and C better than B, but only in some ways. If |
| least because it's now a runaway best-seller and, | | | | the editor's boss then says they can only afford |
| in the fine tradition of that category, it was | | | | to publish two books that month, do you think |
| ignored by most publishers who were asked to | | | | that means he will pick B and C, since he's decided |
| publish it. If people who work at old-established | | | | they are 'better'? Not a bit of it. It depends on |
| publishing houses want to find the next best-seller, | | | | what every other Editor is doing, and what every |
| they could well take some advice from Mr. Taleb | | | | other publisher on the block is doing too, come to |
| in his important book. | | | | that. So, A might get published after all. C might |
| You see, he stresses the value of the | | | | get put off, (you remember, the 'best' book), and |
| unexpected and the importance of the random. | | | | might not even make it onto the list next month |
| He also says that people aren't logical, even on | | | | either. That's the way Traditional Publishing works. |
| the smallest things. He gives the example of | | | | It's unpredictable. Plus, just to make things more |
| asking the question: 'Which do you prefer, apples | | | | 'human' and even less logical, it also depends what |
| or oranges?' We might assume that there is only | | | | day of the week it is; whether a pay rise is in the |
| one answer, but some people can't even give | | | | offing; and what the Editor had for lunch. That's |
| that. Those that can, move on but get fooled at | | | | the way it is in those offices. |
| the next step. They are asked if they prefer | | | | Which is why many authors have given up the |
| pears to apples. If they say they do, they are | | | | battle entirely and turned to the internet to find a |
| asked if they therefore prefer pears to oranges. | | | | way to publish their books. They light upon a |
| Some do, some don't. That's odd, they shouldn't | | | | print-on-demand publisher like Lulu, and find they |
| say that. Who says? The logicians, and the people | | | | can get everything they want there, without the |
| who invented the art of philosophy, going back to | | | | accompanying trauma and heartache. It's entirely |
| the Ancient Greeks. If you prefer one over the | | | | logical and predictable. You load up your files, |
| other, and a different one over that one, then | | | | choose a cover and can immediately order a |
| you should prefer the first over the last. You | | | | copy of your book to look at. It's nothing like the |
| really should. It's called logic. Unfortunately people | | | | random world of Traditional Publishing, which is |
| don't operate as the textbooks predict they will. | | | | why that place is suffering. As writers turn to the |
| Worse than that, it affects economics. These | | | | internet to get their books to the marketplace, |
| days the supermarkets are keen to know what | | | | they have created a new option. It's not Vanity |
| you want, so they can plan ahead and get it on | | | | Publishing, where the author pays all the costs of |
| the shelves. So they ask people the apples and | | | | printing and publicity, and it's not Self-Publishing in |
| oranges question, over and over again, but are | | | | the old sense, where books are printed but never |
| baffled when the oranges don't sell. They should, | | | | sell. In Internet Publishing, books are only printed |
| people said they wanted them. Unfortunately, | | | | when they are needed. There is no initial |
| those questioned do silly things, like change their | | | | expenditure and no inventory. Whoah, no one was |
| minds. Or their circumstances change. Maybe a | | | | expecting that. It's a Black Swan, as Nicholas |
| child leaves home, or a lodger arrives, and the | | | | Taleb would call it, a totally new and unexpected |
| household shopping starts to vary. Or, going back | | | | response to an unsatisfactory way of doing |
| to the question, people have an annoying habit of | | | | things. People seem to have been able to tolerate |
| saying yes, they really like oranges, then never | | | | the abuse for the past two hundred years, but, |
| eating them. Maybe they think they're good for | | | | for some reason, have now finally decided that |
| them, and oranges need supporting. Whatever the | | | | Traditional Publishing is too high risk and have |
| reason, it drives the shop buyers wild. People are | | | | moved to put it behind them. It will take a while |
| so unpredictable. | | | | for that message to get through, but that's the |
| Meanwhile, back at the Traditional Publisher, an | | | | characteristics of a Black Swan. Nobody thinks |
| editor picks up manuscript A and decides he likes | | | | they exist, and then, when they appear, nobody |
| it. Then he starts on submission B and decides he | | | | recognises them for what they are. A generation |
| likes it better. When he reads the third one on the | | | | ago, the whole concept would have seemed |
| pile, C, he's even more excited and thinks it's | | | | ludicrous. Writers becoming their own publishers? |
| even better than B. Which means that he must | | | | It'll never happen! But it has, and it's called Internet |
| think C is better than A, right? Well, maybe. But | | | | Publishing. It's here to stay. |
| since they're all different, there might be different | | | | |